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Ep. 256 John Doody: World s Greatest Gold Analyst Goes All-In
Announcer: S A Investor Radio looks after dark regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to make you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street directly to you on Main Street.
and I m Frank Curzio, host in the S A Investor Podcast, where I stop working the headlines and inform you what s really moving these markets.
It s been some time I m gonna start this podcast off having a rant. I have to take action. It s concerning the job data from the US. The unemployment number was released last week. It was decent. I mean, the unemployment rate dropped to.9 percent. That s the lowest level in six years. The economy added 240, 000 jobs, easily beating estimates. We should celebrate several like that not add too much. It was obviously a pretty good number, especially with the globe crashing around us. The US is doing great, not as bad.
Then the bears come out as well as the sites that I read the labor participation rate is in a 36-year low. It s at 62.8 percent. That means less consumers are in the workforce you realize, stopped seeking to find a job. That s why this number looks so excellent, cause less everyone is trying to identify a job. And by bears, I mean, you might like the politicians, you recognize, elections, stuff this way not long away. You have Alex Jones, Zero Hedge I mean, they simply throw out this labor participation rate. You know, the unemployment rate s horrible. America s terrible. It s terrible it s horrible here. It s terrible to reside America!
So essentially should you look with this number you'll find 96 million Americans out of in excess of, what, over 300 million those who live here that happen to be not inside labor force 96 million Americans, right? They just decided you realize, and economists say they will t find work. They re letting go of looking for the job. No more unemployment checks, so that they re stopping, living about the streets. They re never gonna work again, right? According for the bears.
And, you understand, when I consider this number, and when you read all of the BS, it s crucial that you look at trends and exactly how this labor participation rate is manifested. And I m gonna make it happen for you today, and then you definately decide when the latest number can be a good or possibly a bad sign for that economy. It s very crucial that you understand this, cause you can just post that number you realize, again, I m a numbers maniac. I look at all of the numbers all of the time; I as if it. You know, it s weird. People don t like investigating numbers and analyzing stuff. That s what I do for the living. Okay, so I went back, I looked at the whole bunch of data and again, you opt. The labor participation rate is really a good indicator of regardless of if the economy s consistently or whether you need to sell stocks or buy stocks.
Now first, the labor participation minute rates are dropping, mostly because more everyone is retiring. From 1960 to 2000, right a 40-year period, guys, 1960 to 2000, the labor participation surged. It went from 59 percent to 67 percent. That s a large jump. It would possibly not seem that way much in percentage, but also for that rate, that s an immense, massive jump, right, for the reason that 40-year period. Why? Why made it happen jump for? What is because our economy was great for all of the years, that 40-year period? Through recessions, war rewind. And for everyone listening for this who s been inside the market for any really period of time, before I was born I mean, you re considering periods from 1973 to 75 horrible. Early 80s, horrible, 87 crash, 2000 crash, those periods, labor participation rates surged. Why? Was it the economy was good? No, it wasn t good. It s simply you take a look at women. More women were entering the workforce. New technologies helped people live longer in order that they were inside the workforce even longer. These are facts
Looking from 1946 to 1954, 77 million individuals were born, the little one boomer generation. So today the senior age group will be the largest with regards to size and percentage from the history on the US. By the coming year 45 percent of the population is going to be 50 years or older. So you re looking when they will retire, with the millions, because of the way around three or four million retire each and every year. They fall under the category of people who don t work anymore and therefore are no longer within the labor participation rate statistics. That s why this number is falling. It s a trend.
Another small stat: government disability payments have you looked over that number yet? I think everybody s on disability. 11 million individuals are getting government checks. That s almost double since 2000. All of any sudden a good deal of everyone is getting hurt not. Isn t that amazing? What a weird trend. There are more handicapped parking spaces in mall parking lots than regular spots, a minimum of where I live. It s form of an older community. All right, the best will be the handicapped spots on the golf course. You have people getting disability checks yet capable to play golf. And I m not talking around the two percent of golfers which do have handicaps, like even some well-known pros which need to ride within a cart on tour. Do you understand how many old men I see after my round, after I shoot at 92, that shoot such as a 78, they enter their car like, it s parked directly in front in the place, and drive off. And I know these people. They re probably like 60 years old, retired, disability, doing virtually. I don t kn
We also provide more women staying in home. It s an undeniable fact to take care of kids. One in three moms now work from home, a large percentage jump, over 30 % compared to 23 percent in 1999. Again, they're all facts. These ladies who have much harder jobs than men keep in mind that, my significant other lets me know that each of the time when she stays home and watches the kids every one of the time are also outside the labor force.
Now when you don t like statistics and facts, that s cool. But let s examine common sense, that's sometimes more significant. Do you really believe 97 million Americans are quitting finding work? I mean, in the event that was the way it is, we d really see people using our doorsteps. 97 million Americans? Cause I could inform you, I am performing a construction project during my backyard. The guy who s carrying it out tried to contact distinctive people. He said, Yeah, I m gonna employ a crew here, about five, six guys. We ll undertake it. You know, everything will probably be fine. He s looking to pay them 15.00 an hour or so and not anyone wanted to work. He had to complete the project by himself. It s taken weeks to perform cause he's got to get it done by himself, though he has a poor back. He would like to pay people 15.00 sixty minutes. Nobody really wants to work here, nobody. And I don t know how it really is by you, I m just saying by me. I mean, just how much 15.00 sixty minutes is in Florida it s great money. I mean, you obtain free checks to get on disab
And I speak with people in Florida. Two of my friends here flip houses. They re doing very, well here. Of course they got killed through the credit crisis, nonetheless they re doing great. And I asked them regarding it. I said, Look, each time I try to contract someone in Florida it s like they don t even appear. He s like, We can t get website visitors to work. He s like, We need individuals work here, and we outlay cash good, but people don t what went down to Americans? Like, they don t prefer to work anymore not everyone. I m sure individuals are listening to the present and saying, What are you dealing with? I work consistently. I mean, I m doing a totally free podcast. I don t have to complete this. I m not receiving paid. I enjoy accomplishing this. I take pleasure in the feedback, whether or not it s negative, as if it s been since small caps are actually getting crushed lately. But still, like, so what happened to us as being a society? When did this happen? Is it because, you realize, entitlements? Is it the you understand, plus it s nothing like you wish to blame politics an
You know, I always said, should you re able to move, go for the Williston Basin, North Dakota. Go to your Permian Basin in Texas. You ll make six figures in the few years. It s really tough work, however you ll earn money. And I know you recognize, I get e-mails. Frank, I really don t desire to move. My family s here. That s fine. Sleep with a park bench. Cause personally, when it s an option between purchasing park benches or feeding our kids, I m likely to North Dakota to get a few years. That s just me. That s what I would do, to ensure my kids have a great education or whatever.
Now returning to my rant, though, I mean, fear sells. Politicians, bears, CNN they wish to scare the hell beyond you. Ebola one guy s reached it. Ebola s coming! You re in big trouble! I mean, I was with a radio show, and you understand, an excellent friend of mine inquired about, What are you doing to safeguard yourself? anf the husband was style of joking. I said, I did the most effective thing. I went for the Jacksonville Jaguar game with my loved ones. I really protected myself. It s amazing. And remember, they employ a 24-hour news service, and then there s not one day of news, in order that they ve had reached fill it somehow. That s why they scare the crap of you with this particular Ferguson stuff trying to create this racial divide so everybody goes crazy on social media marketing. That s what they already want for ratings. I mean, CNN is really what they re laying off like 10 % of their workforce cause everyone s sick with their garbage.
But I just can t stand anybody quote numbers to quote numbers. And I m not only a crazy bull and saying, Oh, you understand, everything s great. It s not. It s not great. But you might have to be in a position to analyze the data just like the labor participation rate. You can t just throw against eachother there and say, Wow, it s declining. That s the only real reason why the unemployment numbers are fantastic. And sure, you take a look at it, and college students are going back to school since they thought they'd get a job paying six figures after accumulating 80, 000.00 in school loans, and you realize what? Our economy s different now. You re not gonna make that six-figure job, no less than not the 1st year. It might take you 4 or 5 years, the little bit longer. So they re like, You understand what? Let me return to college then. I understand that s part of computer, however it s a small part of computer.
The labor participation rate is just not an economic indicator. Do not sell stocks dependant on it. It s useless. There s pointless why you need to use the labor participation rate to obtain stocks or sell stocks. It s not an economic indicator. It s nothing. I don t know why people put it to use their websites. It s a total waste of time.
Anyway, I have a wonderful and real important guest available for you today. It s John Doody, one with the best gold analysts in the planet. John is surely an economics professor, somebody that s been following and covering gold stocks for forty years. You understand how I feel about gold stocks. It represents an excellent risk-reward however, even for my subscribers, I ve been early. I mean, I ve been buying these matters close to book value, bottom fishing, great names. There s probably a great deal of redemptions taking place now. You saw a tremendous collapse, especially within the last two months, in gold stocks, even representing an improved value. I m not seeking to catch a falling knife here, just be sure see huge ownership in many of these gold stocks and also you re seeing them trade below book value and many of them below the money they have about the books I ve been with this industry for twenty years and I saw that happen inside biotech industry. I found it happen throughout the credit crisis. You first viewed it happen during 1987. The returns that, you kn
So John s gonna breakdown gold prices, again, which might be in free fall, broke below 1, 200.00, then popped backup again. He s gonna inform you his favorite stock picks, ones he s been analyzing for years. He s gonna show you why that is one of essentially the most bullish times he s observed in his entire career. So again, he s gonna give you a great deal of good picks, great data points about gold prices. This is all on deck using this very awesome and important interview about gold.
Later on I m gonna try taking a little of questions on earnings season, which can be used, right? Alcoa s got a study. How to have Matt Badiali s Resource Report for 39.00 for that entire year if you might have been e-mailing me saying, Are you sure, 39.00 with the entire year? that s what Matt gave us the okay on. I m gonna inform you how you'll be able to get that newsletter.
And also I haven t discussed sports in the while. Someone asked me quite a cool NBA question and I m gonna take that question. It s only gonna take two minutes. I ve got for getting sports in. We used to own this little sports thing in the end and I never make it happen anymore. Anyway, I m gonna take a little of questions.
And then finally from the education segment I m gonna discuss the following great sector I m researching and I m getting into at this time. I haven t bought any stocks, haven t discussed it around my newsletters. This is the thing that I m researching now and I m sending almost all of my time on not only a sector, but style of like a business within technology certainly where an ton of acquisitions consider place right this moment. I think investors may take huge returns buying into this trend. Again, it s in very first stages. A wide range of times I ll emerge in my reports and my newsletters some people listening to the are subscribers. I haven t discussed this trend. I m researching it. We re likely to conferences, me and my team, and that we re finding a great number of good ideas that I m gonna recommend pretty soon so I needed to talk for your requirements about that during my educational segment.
But before I get for the questions understanding that segment, let s jump in with my interview with John Doody, and here it truly is.
We re conversing with gold expert John Doody, who s been analyzing stocks for 40 years and writing one on the best gold newsletters in the planet. It s called Gold Stock Analyst. John, thanks a whole lot for joining us again about the podcast.
John Doody: Hey, good morning, Frank. Good to become with you again.
Frank Curzio: Well, a whole lot s been going on using the gold industry. Gold prices, basically in free fall they broke on the 1, 200.00 level but popped copy. Should people paying for gold stocks today be concerned?
John Doody: Well, I think it is exactly the proper time to acquire in. We just it's like we ve seen a triple bottom where 2 times before gold has broken below 1, 200.00 and that would have been a rallying point, and gold rallied up significantly from then, and also the stocks did, too. There is often a significance to the present 1, 200.00 range because below this companies can actually t be in business. A lots of costs associated while using mining or labor and materials and and so forth you understand, those add together. And the conventional all-in cost to create an ounce of gold at this time is about 1, 050.00 one ounce, but that doesn t include rates of interest or proper requirements and the like. And therefore, the general thought approximately 1, 200.00 or 1, 250.00 could be the real cost to desire to be within this business, per ounce. And so in the event the price gets below that and also you start hearing mention mine closures etc, investors wake up as well as the gold price rallies.
Frank Curzio: Now perform the big guys want costs to return down a small bit and say you recognize, cause there s really so many you already know, much like every industry, you ve got fantastic players, and also the larger players could probably reduce their costs a tiny bit compared on the smaller players. But if costs come down a great deal of those smaller players are gonna go away from business, so we re seeing that within the junior miner industry where some these gold stocks are down 80, 90 percent, get good management teams and good properties. And carry out the large cap companies say, Hey, you understand what? Maybe it will be good whether or not this went down to at least one, 100.00 because many these companies we re gonna be capable of buy these products for pennies within the dollar?
John Doody: Well, that s true, but not usually true for all, because some in the stocks head on down because the projects aren t economical anymore. In other words, you already know, in case you re a business sitting on five million ounces of gold somewhere as well as the gold cost is 1, 200.00 or 1, 100.00 and you also ve got a small grade it may be a great deal of ounces however it s low-grade ounces. If it can t product profitably at this style of price range, then this stock s gonna crater. It s not gonna go because nobody s gonna desire to invest the funds to develop it if you are able to t make anything in it. So some in the exploration-oriented firms that aren t in production, they have a tendency to be probably the most volatile for the reason that gold price affects astounding to raise money and for getting into production, and whereas the producers or even the near-producers, individuals already have raised the amount of money, they re already inside the middle of constructing a mine, they have got more stability for their price. That doesn t mean they don t go lower, b
Frank Curzio: Now I heard a rumor from your mutual friend we now have, and in addition they re stating that after they spoke with you again, this is really a rumor proclaiming that you re all-in at this time, investing all of your fortune in gold stocks give you feel like it is one from the greatest opportunities. Is there truth to that or perhaps is that just a rumor?
John Doody: Laughter No, there s truth to this. I m fully invested within the metal along with the stocks. And the basis for it's that Europe is gonna do some type of QE. They ve already declared that; we simply don t know the amount of. And so we re gonna get some style of QE planning Europe. People are afraid about US raising rates; I don t identify that happening. I think that people might have a token uptick through the Fed next season, you recognize, almost half a percent or something prefer that, but they're trivial numbers, and they might just make it happen to save face. But the facts are, you understand, it s still a reasonably weak economy, and though unemployment went down, it s because individuals are leaving the labor pool. It s not simply because re working or finding jobs. And so there s plenty of sickness out there inside economy, and I think the Fed is gonna continue to get resistant to any significant form of interest rate increase, particularly for the reason that chairwoman, Yellen, can be a dove. So she s gonna be there until Obam
John Doody: Actually she s there longer, because her term runs for six years and it also s not coincident with all the President. So she s got another 3 to 4 years as chairwoman.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, and I d believe you using the low monthly interest environment. And real quick only to put that in perspective, after you said that you re all-in here, the number of times within your career have you ever seen opportunities in this way? Because it may seem like, you already know, you ve been in this particular for decades and decades. Is this one of such times if you re saying, Hey, I m all-in, or have you ever been all-in like this within the past? Like just describe, like, this moment in your case, cause I think people wish to hear that. And I describe you and each and every time I speak with you you re a modest guy, to get honest to you, but I always say, This may be the smartest guy, the smartest gold analyst you re gonna tune in to, right? Now you re saying you re going all-in. Put that in perspective for some other times within the market which you ve actually done that.
John Doody: Well, we did it within the financial crisis in October 08 where it had been raining blood inside markets. And I believed that that would have been a point that gold would really have an excellent opportunity, plus fact gold turned higher the markets ultimately did turn higher in '09. But in October of 08 gold turned plus the gold stocks turned, and from that reduced in 08 I think we had arrived up similar to 900 percent just in the couple of years. But of course we had arrived down getting the club then. And so, you understand, you obtain these opportunities. But we re always invested. You know, it s just a matter of whether you practice your idle cash that s chilling out waiting for opportunities and also you invest it, and I ve been buying here within this range. I didn t obtain the the bottom was Friday to date. I didn t find the bottom exactly. I was buying before Friday. But I imagine that these opportunities, you recognize, they are offered along and you've got to take advantage of which.
Frank Curzio: Now one with the things whenever you re about this podcast you ve been for this podcast numerous times now, every like four to five months you generally talk concerning the importance of real interest rates and just how they impact gold prices. The real interest rate is negative for just a while, usually a great sign for gold prices, yet gold has still tailed off within a negative interest rate you already know, real negative environment. Is this still an excellent indicator? Has this been surprising for you, that gold prices are already coming down together with the real interest levels negative?
John Doody: Well, it apparently is determined by the degree of negative real interest levels. I mean, negative interest rates inside 1970s, inside the last gold bull market, have got to be negative 3 or 4 percent. Now they re negative, bear in mind maybe we ought to define it first.
John Doody: The real interest rate may be the risk-free return with your money without the presence of rate of inflation, then when that s negative it s usually perfect for gold. So the risk-free return with your money is putting it within the savings bank; you already know you re gonna get your investment back. You re not gonna go back the same purchasing power, but at the least you re gonna reunite the same nominal dollars. And so in the event the saving bank interest if 0.five percent say, as well as the inflation minute rates are 1.5 % say, then this difference between the 2 is that you just re losing 1 % of your purchasing power. If you put 100.00 from the bank for the beginning with the year, you have 0.5 % interest on it however you give up 1.five percent interest from the inflation rate, simply put net is usually a net loss of 1 percent of purchasing power. So it s a negative 1 % real rate of interest.
And, you understand, I think we re finding that in the event it s low in this way, 1 % or half a percent, where that net difference is, it doesn t possess a big impact around the gold price since it doesn t scare people. People aren t afraid about protecting their dollars. You don t hear people saying, I ve got to shield my dollars from inflation. And in fact stock market trading s been a decent place to accomplish that so far. But if your interest rate falls the important interest rates are lower, meaning more negative, that s once we really get people afraid about loss in purchasing power. And so when you will get a net difference between the important interest rate or possibly a net real monthly interest of say minus three percent or minus four percent, once we had within the 1970s, then you definately really get great power behind the price tag on gold.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, and I really appreciate you explaining that cause no person knows that. You know, negative real rates it s basically people really taking a loss over time in terms on the purchasing power in their savings, so I really appreciate you explaining that.
John Doody: Well, knowning that s how a government gets from all this debt.
John Doody: We re gonna inflate it away. And it s a drip, drip, drip of inflation that ultimately lowers the worthiness, because those s incomes do rise after some time, and nevertheless, there hasn t been much progress in raising incomes in this particular economic recovery, nonetheless they will get going, particularly as being the labor market tightens up some. And the it s that persistent inflation that inflates away debts, and yes it s exactly so what happened after the Second World War if the United States and Britain were overwhelmed using their war debt. But they ultimately got from it because in the rate of inflation.
Frank Curzio: Now well, just as before we re conversing with gold expert John Doody. What are you hearing cause I know you possess conferences yourself and you also go to visit plenty of these mines and speak to some in the biggest CEOs from the industry, but precisely what are you talking with them? Are they done documenting some in their assets from overspending? Are they trying to acquire properties again? We re seeing the junior miner market down incredibly 80, 90 percent, some of those stocks, with decent properties that will get developed years into the near future. But exactly what are you hearing through the CEOs of those companies? Do they think it s you realize, where s the cycle? What inning could it be? Do they think it s almost over? I mean, what are these people saying?
John Doody: Well, you realize, first they re always within the lookout, and I always prefer to say miners can be like dogs; they re always sniffing 1 another. And, you realize, miners are pretty open regarding their properties cause provided that their property rights are wonderful they re able to let other almost competitors in and possess a look. And lots of miners have signed confidentiality agreements where as long as they show them when they sign the agreement, then your one miner was ready to show every one of its data, most of its drilling information and the like to a potential acquirer, with nevertheless the CA the term in the CA is that it has to get a friendly acquisition.
So by way of example, there s one company we want it s inside the top ten. It s just inside the process to getting its final permit. It s a huge project, about five million ounces. It s within the States. It s safe. It s with a dollar stock. And they've CAs signed with ten companies. Now if they get that final permit, I think there s an excellent chance that there ll be considered a little bidding war that erupts, because five million ounces inside the States, inside a safe location, is a thing every miner wishes for. And that sort of deposit dimension is big enough to get a flagship. So an inferior miner that s already doing 200, 000, 300, 000 ounces, something like this, that desires to move up the scale when it comes to size, this will be the perfect acquisition, plus it would be described as a flagship mine. It s not destined to be I mean, it ll carry interest towards the Goldcorps along with the Barricks and the like, but I don t see them to be a likely potential acquirer, cause it won t really make a large difference in their mind. It s never destined to be a half a thousand ounce a
Frank Curzio: Now speak about you said you understand, you discussed this is around my top ten. You have newsletters it s GSA Gold Stock Analyst Pro that you analyze a number of gold stocks, and you then separate just like your ten best to a newsletter. Talk that and just talk regarding the returns over all your career of such ten stocks that you simply pick for the newsletter.
John Doody: All right, well, the standard premise on the whole analysis package is that you'll be able to t determine if somebody s undervalued if you do not study the complete industry. And so we study about 60 mining stocks or near-mining stocks that are you understand, the mines in Russia, we don t worry about them, but you realize, that trade through North America. And that s the universe we examine, and that we re looking to the ten best values because, the ten which can be most undervalued, ten that we notice that have the potential to double within the next several years without any improvement in gold price. We can t forecast the price tag on gold, but we know very well what good value is and that we know what relative value is. We learn how to compare the present valuations of a firm s ounces versus the standard valuation inside the industry of ounces.
And so the entire purpose of in the 60 knowning that s what GSA Pro does; it covers all 60 stocks is usually to distill that down towards the 10 recommended stocks. And that s the GSA Top Ten, and that is often a separate newsletter all in the own. I mean, the conventional retail investor, he doesn t care regarding the stocks we don t like, so all he really needs may be the top ten. And so even though the Pro is written that has a little bit more of any professional style to it along with a little extra maybe industry jargon, the Top Ten we try to simplify everything and merely focus on those ten stocks.
And so after some time, since and you realize, we now have an audited reputation. We have an unbiased auditor that examines our trades yearly and blesses our results and that we don t make it happen many trades, only a couple of a year typically. But, you recognize, an unbiased audit for your period well, since 2000 up till now shows we re up about 900 percent year as of yet. And that s 2 or 3 times what bullion is doing and about, I don t know, six or eight times the gold stock index is doing.
So we ve basically proven that there aren t 30 or 40 stocks worth owning, which the common mutual fund has to purchase because with the SEC s Prudent Man Rule. But in case you focus about the ten best you are able to beat each of the indexes, and I think we ve proved that. Even up to now this year we re up 33 percent even though the many indexes are down, and in many cases the broad companies are only up, what, several percent? So it s always a regular picker s market within the gold area, and people who believe they get exposure by purchasing an ETF or maybe a they really don t get it considering that the ETFs all will need to have the dogs inside industry. You know, they re good companies, they hire lots of people, but there s no life in the individual. They re just like an elephant that will t dance. You know, we look for that gazelles, the smaller businesses that had production underpinnings or assume production underpinnings to ensure that there is really a basis to valuation. It s not completely all pie inside sky.
Frank Curzio: That makes a great deal of sense. I also looked on the website and I saw something surprising. There would have been a blog there, and I compare it to enjoy Warren Buffett taking place Twitter. Is this like John Doody getting into such as social media age and writing your website, and that is pretty cool?
John Doody: Well, no, we only make it happen for subscribers. You know, involving issues there s stuff that come up which might be of note, as well as an easy way to do that is certainly to simply blog upon it. And I blogged over the weekend because citizens were worried around the gold price and, you recognize, we got many e-mails from subscribers or anything else. So we don t we never answer any person s inquiry to us, if we say something we desire to say it to everybody for the same time. There s no favorites here. And so once we say it to somebody to a single person, we say to everybody with the blog. And, you already know, a great deal of individuals were very concerned. They planned to know about exactly why is gold this poorly the very last couple of months, also it s the dollar. You know, gold may be the anti-dollar, and if your dollar does well, gold does poorly, and so that has been something I needed to say. And I also desired to talk about what I thought could turn the gold price around and send it back, where there s a lot of reasons that
But, you realize, by a success the dollar is ultimately gonna price itself outside the market, and because the dollar gets stronger, which means that you recognize, most companies inside US are multinational now. That means because the dollar gets stronger, their sales in foreign countries are gonna head on down because the merchandise is too pricey whenever you price it now in euro terms or yen terms. And also inside the US commemorate the imports cheaper, and so the imported bags are gonna convey more competition with the domestic manufacturer. So I needed to point out the main things.
And there s a unique vote that s to arrive Switzerland. I have no clue whether this really is gonna be successful or otherwise, but you already know, the Swiss always a hard currency some time ago. The Swiss Central Bank chose to sell off some with their gold cause they needed to delink the currency from gold itself. And in doing how they upset a lot with the Swiss citizens, and for that reason there would be a referendum that s now gonna be inside a national vote November 30, plus the referendum is the place the people can decide if your Swiss bank stop selling its gold, and must they hold all in their gold in Switzerland? They now hold some of computer in Switzerland but additionally some in England and many in Canada. And also in case the Swiss bank be necessary to hold 20 % of its forex assets in gold as opposed for some other currencies? And if referendum passes, they ll have to purchase in order to alternate from they re about eight percent now. To move from 8 percent to 20 % will require them buying about 50 million o
But, you already know, you will never know what can come to pass and which reason may come to fore? But there s still a great deal of things there which can be working on gold s side here, and you already know, financial markets are cyclical. We move through ups and downs, and now we re within a down cycle, but maybe we fired up Friday. So we ll see.
Frank Curzio: And last question here, and we all ll let it sit, is might you discuss without giving out too much as part of your newsletter why not a few stocks that you just re taking a look at, maybe on the watch list? And if you are able to I know people pay for your stuff; I don t would like you to give anything away at no cost. But I know people about this podcast enjoy new ideas and stuff like this, so I was only wondering if there was whatever you could give us.
John Doody: Well, you realize, we never have a very everybody really wants to know what s our top 11
our number 11, where there never can be a number 11. I mean, there could possibly be ten other firms that we re thinking about, but the world thinks ten may be the ideal-size portfolio. And there s things happening within all of such ten. As I was talking earlier this morning to your account, one in the top ten which is undoubtedly an under 1.00 stock which includes five million ounces inside the US that s getting ready for getting its final permits got an essential stake permit the other day. Now that s not the ultimate permit it, but we don t use whatever real roadblock for you to get that final permit. And this is often a stock given that s selling around 60 cents, and I think it gets withdrawn at 1.00 or 1.20, something this way once that final permit comes. So however you only understand this if you re following, tracking these stocks closely and seeing, you understand seeing which they get this step done, then they go on for the next step, and then the subsequent step. And of course this company s usually once they receive the final permit they re gonna be referring to raising th
Frank Curzio: Yeah, it sounds pretty exciting. I guess to obtain that name, you've got to buy your newsletter. Laughter So I prefer that.
Frank Curzio: But, John, listen, there s many men and women nervous in existence. I m getting many e-mails too. I use a couple stocks within my newsletters, gold stocks, and in addition they really planned to hear within you. So again, I always let them know you re one from the best within the industry you happen to be the best from the industry. You ve been with us the longest. You tell people if it s not a superb time when it s a superb time to get gold, and I really appreciate you taking the some time and coming for the podcast today.
Okay, guys, great stuff from John. Again, I needed to have him on today. I love purchasing people or analysts that are actually doing this for many years and are inside a little bit of your down streak. It s not on account of John; the main entire information mill terrible. I mean, I like investing in such as the Bill Millers after, you understand, five bad years, or Bill Gross after he underperforms for any long time, since these guys are already in the market for the long, while. It just proves that even experts have really bad streaks sometimes. I like committing to guys like this. That s one on the reasons why I have John on today. We re offering a unique deal for his newsletter. Everyone that s listening for this probably gets our e-mails. We re gonna provide that link in a e-mail, in order that it s destined to be a discount to where he s actually charging his newsletter on his website. So wait to the e-mail therefore we ll supply a link for your requirements, yet some fabulous stuff.
I kind of much like the fact that he didn t share anything. He s really loyal to his subscribers. He s old-fashioned. I mean, he s been common since my dad you already know, my late dad accustomed to tour with him back inside the Mario Gabelli, Louis Navallier days and everything. So I love conversing with John and easily learning a great deal of stuff, and I think he provides some real ideas. And look, he s been common this industry for the long time anf the husband s going all-in today, so I believed that was interesting. He hasn t done that ever since the credit crisis, to ensure should let you know, hey, you understand what? We may be close towards the bottom here. Maybe it is going lower, but someone that s been analyzing these stocks for forty years is saying, Look, at the moment everything I have is basically within the gold sector right this moment. So I just believed was interesting.
Now let s get to a number of your questions. I m only gonna go on a few today. The first one is produced by Joe, and that he said, Frank, earnings season, just about the corner your expectations, nutrients or bad everything is you expecting? You know, I have to let you know we had an incredible quarter with regard to earnings last quarter, right? You saw earnings grow almost 11 percent, double digits. That s the very best growth rate we ve noticed in six years seven years in earnings, which can be amazing. So you re simply because earnings growth, you re seeing plenty of companies buy back stock. Buybacks have shrunk at the time of last quarter, so companies will not be using their cash to get back stock. Maybe they re using a touch more to purchase back as well as to issue dividends.
But in the event you re taking a look at that, that s gonna hurt earnings results a touch. That s why expectations just for this quarter approaching and again, earnings season s gonna start basically right this moment with Alcoa planning to report. They re on deck. But they re seeking 6.7 percent, understanding that s the consensus estimate, and this s you understand, I say consensus estimate a good deal. What that means can it be s just every one of the research firms. Maybe there s 30 or 40 of those that predict what earnings are destined to be for all S P 500 companies, and you also just take the typical of that, that is it s a great number, cause you've guys almost everywhere, also it s good after you take 30 people therefore you just take the standard.
So last quarter these were expecting below 7 percent; we've got 11 percent. This quarter they re expecting 6.7 percent. It ll be interesting after we get on the double digits again. I think when we do I mean, you could see a tiny bit of a selloff during earnings season, but whenever we do are able to double digits, I believe s gonna pave the way for stocks to go much higher to close 4 seasons. So I m bullish, but at the moment, again, there s a lot of risks inside the marketplace. You know, they re losing Ebola there. You ve got Russia and sanctions coming, and that is hurting Europe. The IMF just lowered global growth forecasts. So there s plenty of risks around that are pushing this market lower, but let s see how are you affected with earnings season, cause earnings are already very, very good, especially within the last few quarters, which s really been driving stocks along with the market higher. If they are available in below 6.7 percent, it can be a time and energy to say, Okay, I ve had reached take money from the table. We re seei
So that s how I feel about earnings. It s an authentic important earnings season, and also you don t hear me point out that. I analyze earnings the many time. It s real important result in the rest in the world is sort of crashing around us therefore we re supporting well. We re gonna know according to this earnings season after we re supporting, if things are decent. We saw Ford end up and say Europe impacted them. We know 1 / 2 of earnings come away from US, so again in my opinion I m gonna be enjoying probably 100 different conference requires S P 500 companies just to have ideas. What s occurring? What are they seeing globally? Again, these conference calls are absolutely free of charge, you. It s amazing. You d never you already know, twenty years ago you couldn t listen to this particular. It was only obtainable for analysts. Now you re for the same stage. You tune in to a real-time update in the company. They re supplying you with what happened from the past quarter and what s gonna happen inside future, what regions are performing good
Next question is produced by Aaron. He goes, I m interesting in Matt s newsletter you mentioned within your last podcast. Please let me know very well what I need to perform. We had Matt Badiali on a week ago and he consented to sell his newsletter for 39.00 for your entire year Resource Report, right? So you re investigating gold stocks, you re thinking about oil stocks oil stocks have drop. If you re looking to purchase stocks in sectors that happen to be really, really beaten down, and Matt is fantastic. He travels the entire world, visits mines all over the globe he s fantastic. I think it s an excellent time to purchase that newsletter at 39.00. I mean, that s the place I m buying, in resources. So, again, a great deal of gold picks, plenty of silver picks I know what number of contacts Matt has within the industry. So he s accepted sell his newsletter for 39.00, again, for your entire year, the Resource Report. If you re interested, email protected If not, don t e-mail me. It s perfectly fine. I just needed to give you that option.
Last e-mail comes from Matt. He says, Hey, Frank, I would wish to subscribe to Small Stock Specialist when the 39.00 offer is still available. It is still available for just a few more days. I decided it s gonna end immediately. After this podcast, in case you get it, email protected it is possible to get all of my research for 39.00. It s still available. Again, you re not gonna hear this again. You re not gonna hear this in a few days but now is okay.
He goes, Thank for the many hard work for the podcasts. I ve been listening for around two several enjoy every minute of the usb ports. Really thank you for perspective for the markets and believe in opinions. You and Andrew and that is Andrew Horowitz would be the only guys I listen to using a weekly basis, so I appreciate that. He says, A couple of notes: I m very excited to see your set of immunotherapy. I ve been investing in the couple stocks within the past year and would like to see your opinion. I m aiming to see a number of my stocks inside your report.
I said this which was about a month ago, maybe 2 months ago. I wrote about immunotherapy unbelievable trend, I mean, something I was really pumped up about, besides because on the stock picks, but something which s actually you already know, again, cancer affects all of us, impacts you. We re celebrating Breast Cancer Awareness Month understanding that s why I went towards the Jacksonville Jaguars game where we dressed up in pink, my significant other and I. She s a cancers of the breast survivor. And also my father died of cancer, so, you understand, it s lung cancer and see immunotherapy actually making breakthroughs on this, and I ve seen countless people write reports like this inside the past. I know it is work. This is a thing that s really changing the face area of cancer, also it s not gonna cure it however it treat it, much like HIV, how Magic Johnson could live having HIV for two-and-a-half decades, 23 years, whatever it's. And that s what they have to re doing, where these tests that happen to be coming out which might be in first stages, and now we ve done lots of ana
So when you re taking a look at this technology and you intend to read my report, again it s 39.00 in case you want it. But if anything, just check out trend. Again, this complaint impacts every one of us, plus it s just one from the reports that I m really proud of and reading the analysis, and I still read daily I read literally every single day about this subject because I am additionally excited over it. So hopefully all of you are, too. And we in addition have stock picks in this newsletter should you re interested, so thanks for writing in. And again, questions, comments, email protected
Now let s are able to my educational segment. Over the past quarter or so my team and I happen to be research robotics. And it s amazing, right? I mean, it is possible to punch up YouTube to see everything. You re seeing like live robots now. I mean, they re capable to clean your home and do a great number of different things. And I m not talking concerning the one that simply cleans your carpets. I mean, they re actually washing your dishes, actually robots as part of your house that cost 25, 000.00.
We ve been across this trend. I ve been everywhere it with Debra Borchardt, who s been likely to several robotics conferences. She visited one call the International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems, IROS. That was in Chicago a month ago. She s about to another one immediately. And it s amazing once we see fractional treatments. She s capturing and calling me and sending notes and everything, and I m doing research on my small end on this. And she was capable of test the Vinci Surgical System, the robotic platform that enables the surgeons to do what is that non-invasive major surgeries. So, you understand, she was really testing it and stating that it s so amazing and has now pictures of all these things.
But you re thinking about robots and saying, you already know, the appliance age it s not here. Guys, it s here. I mean, it s here at this time. Google took over eight companies in a very stretch of like eight months this past year, right? And basically they don t inform you how much they purchased these robotics companies. They don t show you anything that s taking place. They put in such as a I think it s called Google X Division where they don t even use a name within the building and I read up about this. And they test every one of these robots of these hangars and stuff prefer that. They really don t let anyone really know what s taking.
But, you realize, it s over just driverless cars. You know, you re thinking about Apple and Amazon entering into the robotics space and deliveries and building their phones and iPads for Apple and stuff prefer that. But the robotics trend will be here and now, and then there s many companies in this particular trend. Like the initial phase companies are obtaining bought consistently, but there s also publicly traded businesses that we re needs to research. And again, we re out there performing a ton of this and now we want to become the go-to guys within the robotics promote for anybody who wants anything to learn about whatever company it can be, they are available to my newsletters to uncover, because that s what our research team is doing at the moment.
And I wanted to create it up for you because you re taking a look at an industry again, you might take different numbers. They re trying to grow to 45 billion to 2020. That s up from 20 billion today, a 57 percent increase. I think it s conservative. I really do. I think one in the biggest things in your society is time. I mean, you check out productivity, right, and the way much we all do now. And anyone twenty-four hours a day e-mail me email protected But have a look at the productivity now as compared to someone working 10 years ago. I mean, you'd one job to perform. Nobody would you job anymore. We all do like 5 to 6 jobs, right? We re doing a lot of different things, everybody. I mean, how much work perform because on the internet, the quantity of work that we now have and look, I m not implying the job market s great or it s not great. It s not the best to find a job; I know. You know I hate the labor participation rate, but folks are working harder today compared to what they ve ever worked, I mean, everyone I talk with, and robot
But, you recognize, all of the conferences that people re attending, fractional laser treatments s here. We re watching robots speak with you, like interact and employ a conversation along. Alibaba stood a robot with the Consumer Electronics Show last year that's interacting with me, actually talking to me. Hey, nice shirt. That s a very good shirt. I was like, Thanks. He s like, You re welcome. And I was searching like there is somebody inside robot. There was no one inside robot. It would have been a big robot. I was like, Wow, it is so amazing. I only agreed to be looking around who s typing these matters in? But from that which you re seeing I know lots of people aren t seeing this, but this technology will be here. It s here now. I mean, we were treated to cars drive across the Consumer Electronics Show, driving around Las Vegas alone. You know, it s just amazing to determine where it s going.
There are a lot of companies that happen to be gonna benefit. You re investigating some on the big firms that are going into this industry where you've got Apple, Amazing is destined to be huge, Google is likely to be huge, but that s gonna account to get a small part of these revenue. I mean, regardless of whether they generate some billion dollars it s not just gonna come up with a dent. There s lots of smaller companies where robotics is gonna take into account 30, 40, 1 / 2 of revenues, knowning that s the place you re gonna view the huge growth. So that s whatever we re researching now in your newsletters within my newsletters, and I m gonna write lots about this trend. This could be the first time I m actually referring to a trend before I come up with it within my newsletters.
So I just planned to give all of you an update. Let me know very well what you think: email protected A lots of times I ll discuss immunotherapy and I ll consult you over it, I ll write regarding the internet of things around my newsletters and after that I ll talk regarding it, the industrial internet and talk concerning this, which is usually a massive trend. This is one from the times I just wished to go dig deep into the study and say, Hey, you recognize what? This is a thing you don t see. We re attending conferences. We re visiting management teams. We re going on the market. We re testing these robotics and robot things, that is really, great and makes our job many fun. And then we arrive at write about it as well as the companies that individuals saw may benefit long term, especially small caps, as well as perhaps you throw in a very couple of large caps such as a Google, which robotics maybe in five-years may take into account 15, 20 percent on the company s revenues. Who knows? Maybe it won t, but I m just saying this trend can be used now.
These conferences are all new conferences. It s not the 15
Annual Healthcare conference from JP Morgan. These are conferences which might be just setting up now, so this market is just beginning. And what we should re seeing at these conferences is completely amazing. Wait till the Consumer Electronic Show. I believe that the feature s not likely to be 3D printing. It s not destined to be the wearables plus the bracelets, that is what it turned out last year. I think you re gonna see many robotics, many robotic companies all around us with new and fantastic technology. Again, we ll report back to you with all of this information in Small Stock Specialist and as well Phase One, the 2 main newsletters that I write.
All right, guys, that s it in my opinion. Thanks a lot for listening. If you re thinking about receiving my newsletter for 39.00 to get a full year subscription of Small Stock Specialist, email protected Again, just and a days this would be the last week. You won t hear this in a few days. And you will get the whole package, such as me breaking down the many trends LNG, big data, cloud computing, those I just mentioned like immunotherapy, industrial internet. Again, I ll run it for just a few more days, 39.00 for your entire year. Just e-mail me, email protected Also Matt Badiali s newsletter, the Resource Report, I thought it had been really cool when he came on here and said, Okay, 39.00 you might buy it for, and that is really cool. So again, one from the sectors that I m through the roof on that I think the thing is incredible value, huge risk-reward again, 39.00 with the entire year. If you re interested, just e-mail me and you may get that too.
So thanks again for many comments, questions you can keep them coming. And also be sure to supply your comments within the iTunes page, bad or good. That helps our ratings plus much more people could listen to the, again which improves our network lots more people e-mailing in and I can report back for you, so that it s really, great, an effort we all earn more income through investing. So I ll watch you in one week. Take care.
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John Doody, Editor in the Gold Stock Analyst, joins S A Investor Radio.
This week, John Doody, expert gold analyst for almost 40 years and editor in the Gold Stock Analyst newsletter, joins S A Investor Radio to share a number of his favorite investing ideas.
Should people buying gold stocks today worry?
John answers each one of Frank s doubts about gold and reveals his favorite small-cap gold pick to buy at the moment.
He says they are investing his entire wealth in gold discover why.
You ll also hear him indicate that right now is usually a near once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to acquire names on this volatile therefore you ll get each of the details.
Then, Frank answers several of his listeners most favored questions, including concerns about earnings season.
It s within the very beginning but Frank is predicting that investors may make HUGE returns buying into this trend.
HINT: It s market within technology.
John Doody brings an exclusive perspective to gold stock analysis. With a BA in Economics from Columbia, an MBA in Finance from Boston University, where vehicles did his PhD-Economics course work, Doody doesn't have any formal rock studies beyond Introductory Geology at Columbia, taught through the Universitys School of Mines.
An Economics Professor for up to two decades, Doody popularized a metric called Market Cap per ounce. This puts every one of the miners within the same basis, then when buying you understand how much you might be paying for each ounce production and every ounce of reserves. This metric would be the basis for Doodys Gold Stock Analyst newsletter.
A reaction to this Market Cap metric, Doodys newsletter covers only producers or near-producers that have an unbiased feasibility study validating its reserves are economic to create. The results to date are already spectacular: through 2006, the GSA Top 10 Stocks portfolio posseses an average gain of 30% annually. Past and year-to-date email address details are documented in every single issue.
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John Doody: The real interest rate may be the risk- free return on the money without the presence of rate of inflation, so when that s negative it s usually best for gold. So the risk- free return on your own money is putting it within the savings bank; you understand you re gonna get your investment back. You re not gonna return the same purchasing power, but at the least you re gonna get back together the same nominal dollars. And so when the saving bank interest if 0.five percent say, plus the inflation rates are 1.5 % say, then a difference between both the is you re losing 1 percent of your purchasing power. If you put 100.00 inside the bank with the beginning from the year, you receive 0.5 % interest on it however you give up 1.5 % interest inside inflation rate, which means that your net is really a net loss of 1 percent of purchasing power. So it s a negative 1 percent real rate.